French election breakdown: Military power-struggle, French preference and beers
From the question of who controls the French armed forces to the brutal battle of the polls, via the candidates' beer-drinking skills - here's all the latest from the campaign trail as we head into the first round of voting in France's snap parliamentary elections.
During the election period we will be publishing a bi-weekly 'election breakdown' to help you keep up with the latest developments. You can receive these as an email by going to the newsletter section here and selecting subscribe to 'breaking news alerts'.
We're now 19 days on from Emmanuel Macron's surprise election announcement, with the first round of voting on Sunday.
Military force
I'm not saying that this election is terrifying, but the current debate in France is whether, as president, Macron is truly the head of the armed forces or only "nominally".
France, let's remember, is a nuclear power and at the moment it can't seem to agree who actually controls its army . . .
The military question - especially in the context of France's strong support for Ukraine since the 2022 Russian invasion - is only one reason why the rest of the world is paying close attention to these elections. Over in Brussels there is something approaching panic at the though of an anti-EU party in control of one of the 'joint engines' of the European Union, while financial markets are already seriously spooked about two of the party manifestos.
Polls
The polls have been making grim reading for Macron's party ever since he called this election, but as the week has gone on they have consistently provided bad news for everybody apart from Marine Le Pen and her far-right Rassemblement National party.
RN seems to be extending its lead and could be getting within striking distance of an absolute majority in parliament. Previous polls had the party as winning the biggest vote share, but not getting enough seats for a majority.
This makes a huge difference as an RN with a majority would be much more likely to be able to implement its flagship policies - including excluding dual nationals from certain jobs and imposing 'French preference' on job, housing and social benefits. This essentially means state-imposed discrimination against anyone who is not French from birth.
What is 'French preference' and how would it hurt foreigners in France?
Dry bottom
You might think that the ability to 'cul sec' (down in one) a pint of beer has no bearing on a politician's ability or suitability for the role. You might think that this kind of macho bullshit has no place on the campaign trail.
And you might be right - but if we were picking politicians on their drinking ability, ex president and current parliamentary candidate in Corrèze François Hollande would make a strong case.
🇫🇷🍻 François Hollande, en campagne à Ussel en Corrèze, se retrouve à boire une bière cul sec lors de son passage aux 120 ans du club de rugby de Bort-les-Orgues. pic.twitter.com/AW2VimULO5
— Youloucouptere (@YOULOUCOUPTERE) June 22, 2024
What happens over the next week?
Polling day for round one is Sunday, June 30th with polling stations open from 8am to 8pm in most areas.
At 8pm on Sunday the preliminary results are released - these are created by taking sample votes counts from carefully selected polling stations, and are usually very accurate. These results tell us who will be standing in the second round in each constituency (or if any candidates have achieved an outright win, meaning that there will be no second round in their constituency).
READ ALSO How does France's two-round voting system work?
On Wednesday, July 3rd, the official list of candidates for the second round in each constituency is published, and by this date posters for eliminated candidates should also be removed from the billboards.
Sunday, July 7th, is polling day for round two and it follows the same format as round one - preliminary results are released at 8pm, this time telling us the winner in each constituency.
Then the calculations begin to see if any party or group has scored the magic number of seats - 289 - required for an absolute majority in the Assembleé nationale.
If any party or group has an absolute majority, they have the right to nominate a candidate for prime minister. If there's no majority then it's likely that an extended period of negotiations to try and form a coalition will begin - although this is somewhat uncharted territory . . .
You can follow all the latest election news HERE or sign up to receive these election breakdowns as an email by going to the newsletter section here and selecting subscribe to 'breaking news alerts'.
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During the election period we will be publishing a bi-weekly 'election breakdown' to help you keep up with the latest developments. You can receive these as an email by going to the newsletter section here and selecting subscribe to 'breaking news alerts'.
We're now 19 days on from Emmanuel Macron's surprise election announcement, with the first round of voting on Sunday.
Military force
I'm not saying that this election is terrifying, but the current debate in France is whether, as president, Macron is truly the head of the armed forces or only "nominally".
France, let's remember, is a nuclear power and at the moment it can't seem to agree who actually controls its army . . .
The military question - especially in the context of France's strong support for Ukraine since the 2022 Russian invasion - is only one reason why the rest of the world is paying close attention to these elections. Over in Brussels there is something approaching panic at the though of an anti-EU party in control of one of the 'joint engines' of the European Union, while financial markets are already seriously spooked about two of the party manifestos.
Polls
The polls have been making grim reading for Macron's party ever since he called this election, but as the week has gone on they have consistently provided bad news for everybody apart from Marine Le Pen and her far-right Rassemblement National party.
RN seems to be extending its lead and could be getting within striking distance of an absolute majority in parliament. Previous polls had the party as winning the biggest vote share, but not getting enough seats for a majority.
This makes a huge difference as an RN with a majority would be much more likely to be able to implement its flagship policies - including excluding dual nationals from certain jobs and imposing 'French preference' on job, housing and social benefits. This essentially means state-imposed discrimination against anyone who is not French from birth.
What is 'French preference' and how would it hurt foreigners in France?
Dry bottom
You might think that the ability to 'cul sec' (down in one) a pint of beer has no bearing on a politician's ability or suitability for the role. You might think that this kind of macho bullshit has no place on the campaign trail.
And you might be right - but if we were picking politicians on their drinking ability, ex president and current parliamentary candidate in Corrèze François Hollande would make a strong case.
🇫🇷🍻 François Hollande, en campagne à Ussel en Corrèze, se retrouve à boire une bière cul sec lors de son passage aux 120 ans du club de rugby de Bort-les-Orgues. pic.twitter.com/AW2VimULO5
— Youloucouptere (@YOULOUCOUPTERE) June 22, 2024
What happens over the next week?
Polling day for round one is Sunday, June 30th with polling stations open from 8am to 8pm in most areas.
At 8pm on Sunday the preliminary results are released - these are created by taking sample votes counts from carefully selected polling stations, and are usually very accurate. These results tell us who will be standing in the second round in each constituency (or if any candidates have achieved an outright win, meaning that there will be no second round in their constituency).
READ ALSO How does France's two-round voting system work?
On Wednesday, July 3rd, the official list of candidates for the second round in each constituency is published, and by this date posters for eliminated candidates should also be removed from the billboards.
Sunday, July 7th, is polling day for round two and it follows the same format as round one - preliminary results are released at 8pm, this time telling us the winner in each constituency.
Then the calculations begin to see if any party or group has scored the magic number of seats - 289 - required for an absolute majority in the Assembleé nationale.
If any party or group has an absolute majority, they have the right to nominate a candidate for prime minister. If there's no majority then it's likely that an extended period of negotiations to try and form a coalition will begin - although this is somewhat uncharted territory . . .
You can follow all the latest election news HERE or sign up to receive these election breakdowns as an email by going to the newsletter section here and selecting subscribe to 'breaking news alerts'.
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